I. Science
II. Issues
III. Environmental Science
IV. Scientific Method
V. Models
I. Science
What is Science?
Scientists:
- Observe
- Collect Data
- Measure
- Hypothesize
- Theorize
Data becomes the basis for Hypothesis
A hypothesis supported by data and testing -
becomes a theory or law
"Theory guides, Experiment decides"
Common Scientific Principle
Problem
We can not study the entire "population" (all species of this type)
Accepted Solution
Sample as many as possible and then use statistics
to predict the rest of the population.
The Scientific Method (Overview)
Diagram of the Scientific Method.
Scientific Laws
Patterns that emerge from scientific data are
formulated into concise statements relating
constant relationships.
Scientific Theories
Unifying explanations that explain the law based on
experimental observations.
Measurement Is Key in the Scientific Method
The science of measurement is Metrology
"If you can measure what you speak of
and can express it by a number, you
know something about your subject;
but if you cannot measure it, your
knowledge is meager and
unsatisfactory..."
"The ability to measure is one of man's great capabilities"
"Measure what is measurable and
render measurable that which is not
yet measurable"
- Galileo Galilei
1564 - 1642
II. Issues
Can science be biased?
Opinion
Beliefs
Interpretation of Data
Scientists are People - People are Human
Can scientific hypotheses be biased or wrong?
Historical Theoretical Science Examples:
Scientific Supposition in More Modern Times
Carl Sagan in 1991 predicted the entire Earth would suffer dire
catastrophic and climate changing consequences if oil fields in the Mid East
were burned during the Gulf War.
Congress agreed with him. Why?
The populous were told of these predictions.
What happened?
Over 20 years ago scientists predicted damage to the Ozone layer in the
atmosphere.
Were they right?
What did the world do about that prediction?
When will we see results from the action?
Are scientific hypotheses ever wrong?
Are scientific hypotheses ever right?
How do we tell the difference?
What has changed about science:
That will help it be more credible?
* Adoption of the Scientific Method.
* Development of Metrology.
* Development of Fundamental Theories.
* Development of Scientific and Representative Models.
What Is :
Technology
Definition -
The application of science, especially to
industrial or commercial objectives.
Science
Definition -
The observation, identification
description, experimental investigation,
and theoretical explanation of natural phenomena.
Can you see the difference?
Can you see a relationship?
"The science of today is the technology of tomorrow."
III. Environmental Science
"Relationistic rather than Reductionistic"
Environmental Science takes a holistic approach.
- Draws the relationship and organization of each
part to the whole.
- Specifically evaluates the various levels of
organization within the complex structure and the
effects of the changing structure.
How is Environmental Science different from other Natural Sciences?
Environmental Science
It is observed that it is the integration of both Physical and Social
Sciences
Related integration includes the fields of:
Physics, Chemistry, Biology, Geology, Resource Conservation, Management and
Demography, Technology, Economics, Politics, Sociology, Psychology, Ethics,
Law, Business, and others
Limitations of Environmental Science
Complexity and large numbers of variables
Accurate data predictions due to diverse and inaccurate data
Limited accuracy from data and known interactions - estimates
IV. The Scientific Method
Diagram of the Scientific Method.
Practical example of how you can apply the Scientific method
Controlled Experiments
Impartially designed experiments
Large numbers of variables
Some variables not understood in their relationships to one
another
Statistically designed experiments to remove bias
Scientific consensus
is also used but has been wrong in the past.
Examples:
Ether, or Radon from building materials not the earth
Ozone depletion, Sustainablility
V. The Scientific Method uses Models
Models of the environmental variables are developed and used to predict similar events.
Many are mathematically based; are very specific and limited in scope and are
use to specific and narrow similar effects.
Types of Models
- Mathematical Models - Mathematical relationships usually in the form of equations that describe the systems behavior and have narrow parameters within which they predict and have specifications and limitations where they apply.
Examples: Space shots are mathematically predicted from data about the
physical relationships. Air, water, fate and transport of pollutants,
bioremediaton, toxicity, and other systems are mathematically modeled.
Characterized by more precise data.
- Physical Modes - Miniature versions of larger systems that can be
studied to predict the actual system.
- Conceptual Models - Describe the relationships among the variables of the system. Relates dominant and subordinate components and variables.
- Mental Models - Are the fundamental relationships in the mind of the observer that prioritize and related the components into the system for that person. Studied and learned or introduced by our acceptance of traditional morals and information. Eye test in text.
- Graphics models - Display the model in a conventional human
interpretable pictorial manner and usually is subordinate to the fundamental
model it represents.
Models Predict Trends and Future Conditions:
Models predict the behavior over time (not yet experienced) based on feedback
from components (or variables) in the system.
Positive and Negative feedback - contribution to predictions are complex interactions. (Coupled Loops)
Example:
- Oxygen and Carbon dioxide in atmosphere are dependent on animals(+),
plants(-), and humans(+).
{but synergy's such as limitations of one or more species are a complex and
synergistic interaction}
- Homeostasis with Temp. key in metabolism, sweat, heat increases metabolism, Sun heats environment, etc.
Limits - are also feedback controls of systems
Example:
Population and number of trees on Easter Island. Acceleration of tree declined increased the population degradation reduced the people logarithmically not linearly.
Periodic nature of cause and effect- blur observation
Example:
- Temperature on earth due to Sun but the maximum temperature lags Sun's
energy delivery by 2 months.
- Ozone elimination and measured results lag by 100 years.
Chaos and Noise Limit predictability - Noise and unknown effects and synergy's limit the ability to predict the outcome in many instances.
Example:
Greenhouse effect: Carbon dioxide is increasing but is the temperature
increasing?
Synergy Interactions- The combined effects may be much more pronounced.
Example:
Increase in temperature due to global warming can waken plants and cause them to die and increase temperature.
Notes Table of Contents
Introduction to Environmental Science Home Page
Duquesne University Home Page
Created and maintained by
Jim Ferguson
Revised
9/12/95.